The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5.2%, returning to levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. The implied 10-year-to-10-year Treasury yield has reached approximately 6.24%, its highest level since 2004.
A U.S. Treasury yield of 5% or higher has historically been viewed as a critically important psychological threshold—not only for the bond market, but also for risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies.
Markets are no longer pricing in return to the ultra-low-rate environment of the 2010s. They are gradually pricing in a structurally higher cost of capital, fueled by deficits, increased bond issuance, geopolitical fragmentation, and private demand for financing that has grown to enormous proportions.
